ГЕОПОЛИТИКА

It is common knowledge that presidential elections will be held on 19th December 2010 in
Belarus, which is dubbed by a number of leading media on the Old Continent as the “last
dictatorship in Europe”.
Most commentators agree that the forthcoming elections will be held in conditions that differ
greatly from the circumstances of previous election campaigns. By the way, the same notion
was voiced repeatedly by the President Lukashenko who has been governing the country for
16 years. Reference is made not only to the complicated economic situation (in the course
of the last few years Belarus has subsisted exclusively at the expense of foreign credits) but
also to the external political isolation of the regime, in result of which a potential “victory due
to lack of opponent” of Lukashenko can be acknowledged only by countries such as Iran or
Venezuela.
Facts show that the people, who currently govern the state, have no desire whatsoever to
implement true democratic reforms. In this connection, a number of European media highlight
the ongoing pressure upon representatives of the opposition, active members of civil right
watchdogs and independent local journalists, which is being exercised by the law enforcement
structures (arrests, searches, confiscation of documents and printing equipment). This was
the underlying reason for the visit to Minsk (at end-August) of the Rapporteur on the political
situation in Belarus of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Sinikka
Hurskainen, who was informed by the leaders of Belarusian opposition Anatoly Lebedko
(Chairman of the United Civil Party), Alexander Milinkevich (leader of the conservative
movement “For Freedom”), Sergei Kalyakin (leader of the United Left Party “Fair World”),
etc. on the tragic situation in the media sector and the deterioration of the human rights
situation on the eve of the forthcoming elections and their undemocratic nature, whereupon
they gave particular examples in support of their assertions.
The opposition representatives presented Hurskainen with a joint appeal to the Council of
Europe and PACE, pointing out that the way of Belarus to the Council’s structures goes
via free and democratic elections, which cannot be held currently as there still are political
prisoners in the country and its legislation provides “side doors” for falsification of election
results. Therefore, the opposition proposes the establishment of a joint expert group,
consisting of both its members and representatives of the governing circles, which should
elaborate a “road map” for the development of collaboration between Belarus and the Council
of Europe.
In this connection, the US professor David Marples points out in a detailed comment for
the Center for European Policy Analysis (published on 16th September 2010) that “Sixteen
months later, the situation [with the observance of the main democratic rights in Belarus] has
deteriorated.
Mr. Lukashenko has drafted Bill 60, which increases government control over the Internet,
a development which High Representative of the EU Catherine Ashton termed “a step in the
wrong direction.” Two political parties, Nasha Vyasna and the Christian Democratic Party,
have repeatedly been denied registration by the authorities. The forum “Tell the Truth,”
headed by Belarusian poet Uladzimir Nyaklyayew, has been a prime KGB target.”
The topic of persecution against Belarusian opposition was the focus of the article by Mike
Harris, published on 8th September in the British “The Independent”, which brought forward
the mysterious circumstances of the death of Oleg Bebenin - one of the leading independent
journalists and co-founder of the opposition movement “Charter 97”.
Meanwhile, the recurrent violation of human rights in Belarus was noted by the German
Parliament as well. Thus, in the response to the written enquiry by the Green Party, published
on 8th September on the Internet site of the Bundestag, it was pointed out that “serious
problems continue to occur in the sphere of human rights and the rule of law”. Furthermore,
the Parliament in Berlin also noted “that the situation with the independent Belarusian

press has been deteriorating in the last few months”. Deutsche Welle pinpointed in its
commentaries on 6th September 2010 that “all that blabbing about liberalization of Belarus
proves groundless. The authorities are blatantly divested of the will to be held accountable
before the society, particularly in the eve of elections. They operate with sufficient funding
to smother the voice of independent media. The ban on the publishing of certain newspapers
due to alleged “insults to the President” that appeared in them, the forced high levels of
newsprint prices and office rents for private media, as well as the ongoing inspections from
the tax services and the imposition of draconian financial sanctions are common in this
country”.
The state utilizes taxpayers’ money to fund and promote only those media which it holds
under control. This is the reason why Belarusian citizens have no access to detailed and
independent information on what is currently going on in the country. There has been
constant pressure over critically-minded journalists in the course of the 16 years of Alexander
Lukashenko’s reign. At the same time, the state has not identified the criminal offenders
who caused the disappearance or death of a number of opponents to the regime as well as of
independent investigating journalists.”
Having said that, the decision of one of the Belarusian opposition leaders (and leader of the
movement “For Freedom”), Alexander Milinkevich, not to run in the presidential elections
in December could hardly come as a surprise as he considers that there are no conditions for
free and fair elections in the country. His decision was supported by another opposition leader
as well – Andrei Sannikov (coordinator of the civil campaign “European Belarus”). Highly
indicative is the fact that the Presidency of the European People’s Party, which holds the
majority of seats in the European Parliament, also backed Milinkevich’s decision not to stand
for a presidential candidate.
According to a great number of respected European political analysts and scientists, given
the current situation in Belarus, the attempts of some countries from the so called “New
Europe” to build up their relations with Minsk by means of a double standard policy in pursuit
of conjuncture-limited short-term goals, meanwhile closing their eyes to the situation in the
sphere of human rights and democratic values in Belarus, can prove instrumental not only for
the further deterioration of this situation but can also have a negative effect over the way the
incumbent authorities are being perceived by the voters.